Well, maybe not. But this is a free internet, and so, for this season at least, I'm going to carry on pontificating in blog-form (and also in British spelling and grammar; sorry, David). Onto the Philippines!
While the 'gimmick' this time is the returning medical evacuees, the big twist from a gameplay point of view is the three tribes. It's been done before in All Stars, but never since, and the reasoning given is that the Powers That Be want to stop the day one alliance of five going all the way to the end. It's getting predictable.
In the case of All Stars, they switched to two tribes after a few episodes, splitting the tribe that lost a challenge between the other two. Obviously, this did precisely nothing to handicap the dominant majorities in those tribes. A swap followed before the merge, but even if that hadn't suffered the extreme coincidence of only Amber switching tribes, it came too late to change anybody's loyalties.
We don't know what the PTB are planning this time, but I doubt they'll follow the same route as All Stars. Considering that the merge so often happens at twelve now, keeping the same three tribes until the merge is an option. Personally, I'd love to see them keep three tribes with or without swaps. They should definitely do it for the first three episodes at least. If they go to two tribes any earlier, I think we'll still get the alliance of five to the end forming (see Exile Island and Cook Islands).
If they stick it out to the merge without any swaps, I predict that the two smaller tribes will join forces to take out the majority tribe. Then the second biggest tribe will vote off the smallest tribe and an original alliance will be the final three anyway. But it does give the option for some alliance switch-ups if the smallest tribe sees their fate coming. That and the fact that I am absolute rubbish at these kinds of predictions, so we're almost certain to see something totally different.
The immediate effect of having three tribes will be that there is very little wiggle room for weak links. With the gender split, last season, the young, buff men found themselves immediate targets, since everybody knew the challenges wouldn't be too physical. The twenty-something males on this cast have struck lucky since they should be considered indispensable for as long as there are three tribes.
Those who are less physically able are going to have to pray that their tribe wins one of the two immunities. When you're looking at your tribe and alliance dwindling to five after the first loss, it's going to be awfully hard to keep a weak link just because they're nice, or they work hard around camp, or even because you trust them
I'm less enthused about this, since I usually root for the less physical players. Oh well. They had their luck last season, and half the point of Survivor is that it's not fair.
The returning players are interesting because they're not in the recent consciousness, so to speak. Russell played the most recently, and that was six seasons ago, an age for the recruited players who don't seem aware of players before Heroes vs Villains. Jonathan Penner played twice, but hasn't been seen since 2008, and Michael Skupin, of course, played over ten years ago, when half the cast were still in school!
This makes them less famous, less recognisable, and I did wonder if that would make the new players a little less in awe of them, a little less interested in keeping them around for their experience--especially since Jonathan's the only one who's even made it as far as the merge. That said, most of the new players seem to be long term fans, so I am now expecting them to fare much like previous returners, i.e. become leaders in their own tribe, and go deep into the game. (Redemption Island's Russell H is the exception that proves the rule.)
Unlike South Pacific, where newbies worried about returners in their pre-game interviews, this season the cast seems more tolerant of the idea and readier to exploit them. Every season with returning players has had one of them make the finals, but only Boston Rob won (discounting Micronesia with its tribe of returners). The evidence is very much in favour of allying with returners so you can go deep with them--although this season's Pete makes a good point that they tend to run away with the fan favourite money.
Then there's the hidden immunity idol, which has gone back to China's hidden-in-plain-sight approach and one-upped it. Quoting Jeff Probst at EW.com:
“There’s actually a clue at the bottom of a rice jar that says, ‘The idol is hidden in plain sight. In fact, it’s right under your nose.’ And if they take the top of the rice tin off, they would find that is the idol. The top of the rice tin is the idol.”So what happens when somebody works that out? Don't they need the top of the rice tin to keep the rice from getting damp and spoiling? I'm looking forward to the idol 'holder' discreetly removing the rice lid for every tribal council and then replacing it afterwards.
I'm glad they've gone for this approach after what's been happening for the past six seasons. I still wish they'd just give the idol a rest though. It's most often used now to tighten an alliance rather than shake up the vote. Every season one idol is found and held until final five, never once needed by its holder, while the other one is played to no success.
Finally, and it's been long enough that this has to count as a twist: water challenges are back! My husband and I have been watching Vanuatu and Australia over the summer and those seasons reminded us just how cool water challenges are. As beautiful and elaborate as the challenges are, it's hard to beat the simplicity and exhaustion of the players swimming against the waves. Again, this means trouble for the less physical contestants, but I'll be doing a proper look at the players another time.
Still three weeks to go, huh? We should try and finish Australia before the premiere...
