I have gone with a straight alphabetical listing by first name, with the exception of Dawson, since she'll go by her surname on the show. But for reference, here is a tribal breakdown complete with links to my full thoughts on each player.
| Matsing | Tandang | Kalabaw |
| Angie | Abi-Maria | Carter |
| Denise | Artis | Dana |
| Malcolm | Lisa | Dawson |
| Roxy | Michael | Jeff |
| Russell | Pete | Jonathan |
| Zane | RC | Katie |
Abi-Maria (32)
Abi-Maria is Brazilian by birth, was cut from Tocantins and has now finally made it to the actual game. Assuming she's been watching the show since her original casting, seven seasons ago, she should at least know the game fairly well, although she seems more focused on using it as a platform rather than winning. What most struck me about Abi in her CBS video is that she has a very child-like demeanour, despite being thirty-two. I expect it's a cultural thing, but it makes me wonder how well she'll fit in socially. Other players might dismiss her as an ally... or they might peg her as somebody who can be manipulated. I'm thinking the former.
Angie (20)
This season's youngest contestant, the first of our beauty pageant winners and lamb to the slaughter. Honestly, there is nothing to recommend this girl to the game. She's probably a perfectly nice person and she certainly looks good for television, but... well, this kind of casting is half the reason why the producers are always saying they don't get memorable female characters (the other half is that the producers' definition of a memorable female character is very different from mine). Anyway, she might get picked up by an aggressive player seeking a pawn, but it's also entirely possible she'll be dropped early because she doesn't bring anything to her tribe.
Artis (53)
I really like Artis, and as a cancer survivor who's been applying for years, he's automatically somebody to root for. He seems charming in his video and he also looks in great shape for his age. On the other hand, he is the oldest guy in the game and that should always set off alarm bells. I don't think he'll be a physical liability but he might be a social one. He claims he's able to be laid back and stay calm, but everybody says that before they get hungry and sleep deprived. If it weren't for the returning players, he might be fine, but Michael will almost certainly be given the leadership role in that tribe and he'll embrace it.
Going back to the physical side of things, old is old, even if he's fit and his tribe has three of the four oldest players in the game. It's not uncommon for players to decide that the old people must be the weak links (even if this doesn't bear up under examination). I really hope I'm wrong with this, because I loved Artis' video and his metaphors, but I don't think I'll get to enjoy them for long.
You know, doing this alphabetically has made me seem very pessimistic about everybody's chances so far. I can promise I have higher hopes for the second half of the alphabet. Next!
Carter (24)
At least, with Carter, I'm certain he'll make the merge. As his tribe's only young guy and a track coach, he's going to be vital in challenges. He's probably the season's most athletic player and he's a laid back surfer dude, so I don't see him going home in the tribal stage. On the other hand, he'll be a threat as soon as the individual immunities start, and there's nothing about him that screams he's got the strategy to work around that. He means to play hard, but I think he'll be blindsided before he steps up his game. He'll be too likeable to allow close to the end.
Dana (32)
I like Dana a lot, but it's tricky to see where she'll fit in, in a tribe that's difficult to determine the hierarchy of in the first place. I bet she'd be a good player, if she does find her social niche, but I worry she'll be isolated and voted off early. She admits that she's never swum in the ocean, which could be a significant issue, but on the other hand, she is an outdoors type and looks like she should be able to contribute physically. I'm hoping she's going to make the jury, but I go back and forth over how long she'll actually last in the game.
Dawson (28)
I can't make my mind up on Dawson who is smart but all over the place. She's a big fan, comes across as very vibrant in her video, thinks she can play a great game... but talks more about pranking people than her strategy. What I do think is that Dawson might end up defining the Kalabaw tribe, being one of the Bright, Young Things, but with an intelligence and game knowledge to rival the two older men. She could decide to lead the younger players in a group, or she might leap at the chance to ally with Jonathan Penner.
I'm leaning towards the latter, but I could be biased, because I love Jonathan. And since Dawson looks like she could be just as big a character and just as smart, the two should make a vastly satisfying alliance.
What's working against Dawson is her physical ability, since she admits she won't be a huge contender there (it doesn't help that there's no way in hell her swimsuit is lasting 39 days). If she's a liability, her alliance might end up cutting her loose, however regretfully. On the other side of things, I wonder how comfortable people will feel aligned with somebody so zany. Or perhaps she's one of these rare people who can stab somebody in the back, then share a smile with them as their torch is snuffed. She's a dark horse to win for me.
Denise (41)
Pre-game, Denise is probably my favourite player. I always root for the older women, but she's definitely a player who ticks all the right boxes: she's a huge fan of the show who practiced making fire before going out, intends to work hard around camp and competes in triathlons. (Cycling probably not so handy, but running and swimming are very good indeed!) And as a sex therapist, she's used to putting people at their ease and getting them to talk to her. Cross-skills, ahoy!
Best of all, her game motto is: "Keep it simple, keep it smart!" Too many players get caught up in making things convoluted and looking to make a Big Move (tm) to seal their name in Survivor history. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: It's the little moves that win, not the big ones.
That said, I'm not out and out picking her as a winner, simply because she's an 'older woman' (by Survivor standards) and they always have trouble breaking through. Players are apt to be suspicious of the older women who play aggressively and frequently older players are perceived as weak, regardless of fact. I think her swimming ability will keep her around to the merge, but whether or not she's able to get a solid alliance is another question. If she can, I think she has a very good shot of taking home the win.
Jeff (44)
I'm not a sports fan, certainly not a baseball fan, so I'd never heard of Jeff before the season started. He seems smart enough and he's got to be athletic, so I would assume he has a decent shot at this, but people more familiar with him than I are predicting that he's going to butt heads with others, most likely Jonathan Penner on the same tribe as him. From my point of view, he just doesn't seem to have much going for him socially, based on his video. So I predict Jeff to be isolated early in terms of alliances, he'll probably be aware of this fact and that will only increase his frustration (understandably). He might make the merge, depending on how his tribe do, or they might cut him sooner if they decide they don't need him. Either way, I suspect his final words will be how his tribe made a big mistake.
Jonathan (50)
Jonathan is far and away my favourite of the returnees, so I could care less if he's already played the game without being medically evacuated. This helps make up for his omission from Heroes vs. Villains. He's always good value for camera-time, and he'll call out Probst when his commentary gets too trite. He also loves the game and is clearly smart, plus this time, he claims he doesn't care about being a character; he wants to win.
While Jonathan's a savvy player (evidence A: his immediate crosshairs on Parvati in Micronesia), I will always have reservations about him. He does brilliantly with somebody like Yul who he respected and engaged in academic discussion of the game. But he struggles on a more intuitive level, gets overbearing, and then frustrated when other players are wary of that--I always remember watching him browbeat Cirie on Micronesia with a sinking heart. Much as I would have loved her to join forces with him, even I would have opted for Parvati's group in that situation. Similarly, he failed to grasp that Candice's Cook Islands mutiny was to get away from him as much as anybody else in the tribe.
But he's a popular player, and I'm hopeful that this means other players want to ally with him. I don't see him as a winner, but I do think he will make jury at least again.
Katie (22)
The second of our beauty pageant winners, and the second youngest player, though she seems less naïve than Angie. I'm fairly meh on Katie, partly because she keeps listing her beauty as one of her positive attributes. Please excuse feminism while it scoots back a few years. Maybe she'll surprise me, but I find myself wondering if Jonathan will peg as her this group's Parvati and get her out immediately... and I don't really mind. There's nothing obvious that she brings to the table as far as the game is concerned.
Lisa (49)
And our second celebrity contestant... who I have at least heard of! Or, more accurately, remember the show. I haven't seen the show since I was eleven and don't remember the particulars from it, but I remember absolutely loving it. For sentimental reasons, I would like Lisa to do well! As it is, she doesn't really come across as the z-list celebrity as that other Survivor stalwart, the mother who's now taking the time to do something for her rather than her family. She seems like a lovely (if conservative) person, but she admits that she won't be able to lie in the game, even though she thinks that's a good strategy. There's also nothing to suggest she can contribute physically in challenges. On a different season, she might have been the mother hen; on such a small tribe, I don't think they can afford to keep her around.
Malcolm (25)
There's at least one every season: the young alpha male who assures us that he's smarter than everybody else, that he will be controlling the entire game from day one and that he's going to win because he is determined to do so. I count seventeen variables in that plan (eighteen, if you include Probst).
Malcolm's biggest problem is that the game is thirty-nine days long, and while he might be a smooth operator, I doubt he's got the skills to con everybody for the entire run. Like many players before him, by the time of the merge, everybody will have seen right through his social game. Last season, Jonas talked about how he tried to find common ground with people so his relationship with them came from 'a natural place' and wouldn't feel forced. I don't think Malcolm's realised this concept.
I'm sure he can get himself to the merge. I wouldn't put it past him to make the finals. However, I would predict zero votes for him before I predict him the win.
Michael (50)
"The guy who fell in the fire" is returning after twenty-three seasons or eleven years. That kind of gap makes him ancient history to the recruits... but it happened when Survivor was still new, and it was a landmark moment in landmark TV, meaning he's probably better known than Russell or Jonathan, the other returners.
It's also a long time to be away from the game. The closest comparison we can make is to his fellow Australia vets, Colby and Jerri, who appeared in Heroes vs. Villains, 18 seasons (nine years) after their original season, although they had been on All Stars in the interim. Still, Colby struggled with how the game had changed since he originally dominated it. On the other hand, Jerri appeared a little more laid back than when she had previously played, and thrived (technically, she only finished one position higher than Colby, but she clearly had a more enjoyable experience).
So will Michael be more like Colby or Jerri? Going back to the original season, he wasn't much like either of them, mostly because he was a little bit crazy. As far as I could tell, Michael was more interested in survival than Survivor, and although his tribe were set to dominate before his evacuation, it looked like Jeff and Alicia were the ones setting up to run the game. On the other hand, Michael's evacuation meant a strategic side of his game might have been edited out. He seemed to have some sort of partnership with the otherwise unseen Nick, and it's entirely possible that they had a gameplan.
Due his infamy, I think Michael will be embraced by his tribe who will be as eager to see his second chance as the rest of us. He's ten years older, but seems no less enthusiastic and still in pretty good condition, and that should carry him to the merge. At that point, he becomes the last guy that anybody will want to face in the finals, so I just don't see him getting past the jury.
That said, I'm calling him for Fan Favourite here and now.
Pete (24)
On paper, Pete is cut from the same cloth as Malcolm, and they share a lot of the same sentiments about the game and their chances in it. However, while Malcolm came across as very pleased with himself in his application video, Pete came across as cool, logical and objective. I don't for a moment think this means Pete's self-assessment is more accurate than Malcolm's, but it does make a difference in how he's received by the other players. Pete sounds objective when he talks about the game, and therefore he "de-personalises" his moves. Think of Yul, particularly when he strategised with Jonathan (I am deeply disappointed that Pete and Jonathan are not on the same tribe), or even Sophie, who was as guilty as fellow finalists Albert and Coach, but whose reserved gameplay earned less resentment.
Pete aims to play like Russell Hantz rather than either of those two, but his engineering background (he has a degree in it, even though he became a model instead) means he should be more methodical than Russell's chaotic and impulsive gameplay. Judging by the answers he gave in his bio, he's got a goofy side that wasn't obvious in his video, and he does describe himself as a social chameleon. I'll have to reserve judgment on his social game until we see him in action, but if he can be the guy you have fun with, plus the ally you want to strategise with, he can go an awfully long way in the game.
I expect Pete won't be as good at this game as he thinks he is--for a start he's really too young to have that level of social awareness. Still there are plenty of other smart people that he can ally with to cover his shortfalls, and his matter-of-fact tone is harder to see through than smooth words. Add in his athleticism and sense of humour, and this is a player I have to include in my picks to win.
RC (28)
RC looks like a model but is actually a banker who also swims competitively. She thinks Survivor will be nothing compared to Wall Street. I suspect that it might be an apples and oranges case, but I do like the fact that she's used to dealing with men in a professional capacity, which gives me hope for another female player who doesn't take the flirting route to the end. (Honestly, we've been doing quite well with those lately, what with Sophie and Kim's back-to-back wins, but until all the female applicants stop comparing themselves to Parvati, the battle in-my-mind is not won!)
She also said she has swum the Channel (the English one), describing the experience as eleven hours in sixty degree water. I tried to look up when she did this swim, and can only find reference to her doing it as part of a three-person relay (with her father and sister, changing swimmers every hour; RC went first). I can't say for certain she hasn't done a solo effort, but it's somewhat less impressive than it originally sounded.
On the other hand, it's still one hell of an achievement--for those of you unaware, there are many requirements for swimming the channel, and one is that you can't do it in a wetsuit (you get vaseline instead). I once knew a guy who did the swim, and I well remember his cheerful description of how gruelling it was (read his blog here). Even if RC got to spend two hours huddled in a boat for every hour she was swimming, I can think of few things that would be better training for the deprivations and toll of Survivor. On a season where they're determined to return to water-based challenges, it's going to serve her really well.
Beyond this, she's a long term fan of the game, and she seems utterly charming in her video. It's difficult to find something that will work against her in the game, aside from her youth, and winners have been on the young side lately.
Roxy (28)
Roxy is probably the player I'm most interested in actually watching and finding out how she fares, just due to her training as an Army Chaplain, which strikes me as a career that could be particularly relevant to Survivor. The whole point of army chaplains (as I understand it; I'm very much a layman here) is to provide comfort for soldiers in horrendous conditions. They don't carry weapons, but they will be in the thick of the action. They aren't there to promote their faith, but to provide religious support to those who need it. They are a walking morale boost.
Now, a lot of people are not fond of seeing religion on their reality TV, but I have no objection to it--South Pacific is my favourite season, and that's due to how Upolu bound themselves into a tight unit due to prayer and how the effective exploitation of the devout Brandon cost Coach and Albert any chance of winning the game--there is, apparently, still an ethical line in the sand that players can overstep. If Roxy follows my interpretation of an army chaplain, she could be a vital element of her tribe, particularly with Zane, who has been cast to be Brandon 2.0. If that's the case, can she follow through without overstepping the jury's ethics?
She says she thinks she'll win the million because why else would God have brought her all this way. Aside from the matter of what God has brought everybody else all that way for, I personally feel that God, should he be interested in Survivor at all, is more interested in the experience than the money (although apparently he's OK with revealing immunity idols on request). Roxy herself seems to be there more for a personal journey than to win, inspired by Redemption Island's Matt rather than South Pacific's Upolu, so I'm not sure she's got the gameplay she'll need, although she is at least a fan.
If nothing else, I really want her to make the loved ones visit so that we get to see one of her parents (I assume). In her video, she explains that her parents are from the rural Caribbean and have lived in Survivor conditions. These days, they like to poke fun at the contestants on the show and are apparently looking forward to laughing at their city-dweller daughter's attempts to survive.
Besides all this, she should be fit due to military training and she seemed likeable enough in her video. On her tribe, I would guess Angie, Russell and Zane would all be open to some religious morale-boosting. Therefore, even though I think she'll struggle with the individual game, she should be safe to the merge.
Russell (45)
Although Russell has probably the second most famous evacuation scene, he's the least well known of the returners and the 'smallest' character. In his original season, he made very little strategic impact, since he got totally sidetracked with being the leader of his tribe, a role which he had been forced into.
He claims he doesn't want to be railroaded into leadership this time, but I think he will be, because that's the role returners fulfil: the voice of experience. If he resists that could spell trouble for both himself and Matsing, but I think being the leader could work out for him this time. He's got the experience to avoid the pitfalls of his previous season, and everybody else will think of him as a figurehead, not realising that he's more strategically savvy than he appears, kind of like Coach last season.
After seeing his video, I do think Russell's going to catch people off guard by being more savvy about the game than anybody remembers. I'm not sure if he's really got the instincts to get himself to the end though. Still, of all the previous players, I think he's got the best shot of winning (even if he won't necessarily finish higher than the other two), because he won't be so high on everybody's radar.
Zane (28)
Zane lists Brandon Hantz as a role model for this game, and has clearly been cast to be a similar character. He's got nine years on Brandon and does come across as more grounded, but he really shouldn't be on the show. He wants to be liked by the audience, which is never a good start for a reality show contestant. He's dismissive of the rest of the cast before he even starts the game. I hope he warms up to Roxy, because I think he'll be needing religious support very quickly.
The problem with contestants like Zane is that they are unpredictable in their gameplay, because they don't know what they're doing and pride themselves on steering away from convention. People ally with them, thinking they're going to be easy to manipulate and/or a great person to sit beside at the finals, but nine times out of ten, they open their mouth at the wrong moment or change their mind at the last minute and their allies pay the price. Also, it's never a guarantee that the crazy person can't win; some South Pacific contestants believed that Brandon would have won had he got to the end, just because he had stayed true to himself.
Zane needs to go home early. He won't.
After all that, who do I really think will take home the money? Well, ignoring the vagaries of the game (in the right circumstances, just about anybody could win), I think our players with true winner potential boil down to Denise, Pete and RC--possibly Dawson as well, but she could just as easily be a complete goofball. Time will tell.
That's my winner shortlist, but in time-honoured internet tradition, I will pick one as my 'official' winner prediction, and that's going to be Pete, on the grounds that I have picked a male winner for the past couple of seasons only for a female to win. Statistics say that a guy's got to bring home the title sometime, so I'll stick with the less fair gender until one does!
So there we go. Pete for the win, but I'll assess how far off the mark I was for each contestant as they're eliminated.
No comments:
Post a Comment