To Greener Pastures

The blog is moving!  Or rather, I am moving, and the blog will be abandoned.

Starting from tonight's episode, my Survivor commentary will be found at Rob Has a Website under the Survivor tab.  I think the idea is for my column to be posted on Monday, but that's not 100% yet--let's just say by this time next week!  Rob is doing some expansions on the site, as I understand it, and I'll be joining a small group of Survivor bloggers, including fellow RNO alumnus Andy Baker, in bringing you our fascinating info and riveting opinions on each episode.

I am really excited about this for a number of reasons.  Obviously, there's the improved traffic--what internet writer wouldn't like their profile raised?  Mostly though, I am thrilled to join a team of writers again representing one of many different takes on the game as it unfolds.

That said, I do want to send out a heartfelt thanks to everybody who has read this blog, because my 'indie' effort was a lot more successful at this early stage than I expected.  I got my thousandth pageview before the second episode, and while that's not unique pageviews, I assumed I'd have a much slower start than that.  So I'm tremendously grateful to everybody who linked to and/or retweeted me--particularly David Bloomberg who got the word out among the RNO fans.  To all those of you who followed me over from Reality News Online, I appreciate your support and apologise for asking you to remember another website.  On the plus side, most of you probably go there anyway, and if you don't you should.

Signing off here, unless I find use for this blog again.  Enjoy tonight's episode and I'll see you at RHAW!

Philippines episode 2

This week, I appear to be all about the female players.  Denise in Matsing, RC and Abi-Maria in Tandang and Dawson in Kalabaw all have some interesting gameplay going on.   It's not like the guys aren't doing some good stuff too, there are just less developments among the men this week, and what they are doing is stuff we've seen before.

I'd like to point this out now, before we start getting the apology from production for failing to find any memorable women for this season.  The ones you have are good!  Really!

Matsing - Control Freak Out

Tandang - There Goes the Tangled Web

Kalabaw - Let the Speculation Run Rampant!

That's all for this week.  I'll post again on Thursday if not before.

Kalabaw: Let the Speculation Run Rampant!

After Wednesday's episode, Carter ruefully tweeted that he wished Kalabaw would lose a challenge so that they would get some airtime.  Damn straight.  Not only have we yet to hear from him in episode, but he hasn't even had an in-game confessional online yet.  Of all the players, Carter is the only one from which we have no commentary on the game's first week.

Carter shocks his tribemates with a brief
appearance from the shadows

What Carter needs to do is throw a challenge, then try and get both Jeff and Jonathan voted off at once, since they continue to be the entire focus of Kalabaw's edit.  Jonathan wants the idol and Jeff wants to get rid of Jonathan.  I'm tempted to just link you to last week's Kalabaw entry and leave it at that.  But that would mean passing up the chance to write a thousand words or so of speculation based on virtually no evidence, and that doesn't sound like me at all.

Biggest development in Kalabaw this week was Jonathan finding the idol, a little bit of ornamentation on top of the rice lid.  Will somebody notice it's gone?  You'd think so, although I'd also bet on some of the tribe never missing it, just because it's one of those decorations that you never really register.  Now, as I am told by Reality Rant's Bill Hammon, the idol cannot be taken off somebody's person or from their bag, but if it is hidden by the idol holder and somebody else comes across it and recognises it, it's finders keepers.

Since this season's idol has "This is the hidden immunity idol" written on it, Jonathan has elected to keep it in his bag.  It's possible therefore that somebody will check his bag and discover he has it, but then again, everybody suspects him anyway.

This has not deterred Jonathan from considering it a secret, and he has an absolutely wonderful online clip where he details how the idol can be used as a weapon of defence (playing it at Tribal Council) and a weapon of offence (using it to engender trust).  He's not going to tell anybody straightaway, but he's planning on using it to bring somebody under his wing and act as their protector.

The above makes me think of Natalie Tenerelli and Boston Rob.  Jonathan said before the season started that he knows "what a winner's game looks like," and although Cook Islands' Yul has to be a contender for his role model, this is the second time this season that Jonathan has reminded me of Redemption Island's Rob, the first being when he got everybody down to the beach and then made an excuse and doubled back to search for the idol.  Is Jonathan actually trying to replicate Boston Rob's game?

The potential problem here is that there cannot be a one-size-fits-all way to win the game.  You have to play to your personal strengths and weaknesses, and to the situation you're put into.  Giving Jonathan the benefit of the doubt, Boston Rob's game would not be a bad fit for him, and he's certainly smart enough to improvise his own moves.  I just hope that he's not going to blindly shoehorn Ometepe onto Kalabaw.

Does this mean he'll have more time to spend with his tribe?  Despite the idol distraction, I don't think he was separated from them that much anyway.  He knew it was at camp, so he could only look for it when nobody else was around, and the rain meant that everybody kept to the shelter.  His only chance was when they went to the cave.  The episode took care to show him returning to camp during the game of checkers, but I have to assume he had been absent for a confessional rather than anything voluntary, unless he was braving the rain to search for food?

Jonathan himself paints a rosy picture of his tribe position, saying he's got five people he can work with and that they're having fun.  Now, Jonathan's told us similar info before and been wrong--he's an eternal optimist about this game.  Clearly, he's oblivious to Jeff's designs, but let's assume he's got some basis for his confidence in the other four.  Does he have a target for his Natalie?  I can't quite fit any of his tribe into the sweet and nervous follower role--maybe Katie?  Or perhaps the unknown quantity of Carter?

While we'll hopefully see Jonathan firming up an alliance soon (my fingers are still crossed for Dawson!), Jeff Kent's already got his eye on a few tribemates, talking about himself, Carter and Dana in an online video.  He actually refers to them as being able to handle the challenges without Jonathan, but he goes on to say: "Our plan--my plan--is not to let him win [the game]."

Interesting phrasing, and my interpretation is that he might not have a formal alliance with those two (or perhaps has separate alliances with them but not formalised a threesome), yet he is counting on them in his overall gameplan.  We knew Dana was gravitating towards Jeff anyway, and I suppose we'll have to assume that Carter's OK with that too, but the conclusion here is that Jeff is seeking out the more physical players for allies.

On the wrong track for Kalabaw MVP

We learn in the same clip that his vendetta against returning players started prior to the game.  He claims he already knows the 'secrets' of the game that Jonathan is using to schmooze the tribe.  I'd say it's more a case of knowing the theory and experiencing the practice are two different things, so Jonathan can't help them learn it directly, although he can probably guide them.  Still, Jeff is right to prevent the others from putting Jonathan on a pedestal.  I don't think voting him off immediately is necessary, but you can't let him get to a place where the tribe/alliance is dependent on him.  That just gives him power in the game.

On the other hand, if Jeff came into this game refusing to play with returners, he's limiting himself.  All the more so this season, since Jonathan represents 20% of his potential allies, and the guy closest to his own age.

Also, if Jeff took on the puzzle portion of the game this time with the intent of proving Jonathan redundant, he didn't do a good job.  They still beat Matsing, but they lost their lead over Tandang, and Jeff seemed to be the weak link.  Jonathan had to remind him in the challenge to listen to Dana, and Dana herself observed in an webclip that Jeff kept trying to look over at Tandang's puzzle for a clue.  Eventually she managed to get his attention and tell him that she would take care of the peeking.

Dana didn't sound bothered by this behaviour, but I can guarantee that the others noticed.

While we're on the challenge, I was surprised by the distribution of women on Kalabaw.  It was a given that all the men would be running and that non-physical Dawson would not, but I would have pegged Dana as their female runner and Dawson as the caller.  Instead, Katie stepped up to prove her strength and Dana to prove her brains while Dawson apparently felt comfortable enough to sit out.

I'd say it paid off for all three women.  Katie was part of the reason that they pulled briefly into the lead, competing well with Jonathan against RC and Artis, while any blame for the puzzle seems destined for Jeff rather than Dana.  After being the weakest link in the previous challenge, both women redeemed themselves this time.  Meanwhile, Dawson and Jonathan went from second place to victory in the first challenge puzzle; Jeff and Jonathan went from first place to runners up.  Not only that, but she reported on twitter that she beat him at checkers too.  Advantage Dawson.

I don't know if Dawson's sitting out was voluntary, or if Jeff was keen to promote himself and (possible) ally Dana, so sidelined her deliberately.  Either way, it shouldn't hurt her, although it will force her to compete in next week's challenge (as I understand the rules), which might or might not be a problem.

Also on twitter, Dawson confirmed that she wasn't fooled by Jonathan's lie about looking for his glasses: "I spent the rest of the day with him until he had to go somewhere and I kept looking!" Obviously, that didn't pay off for her, but she's certainly smart enough about the game.

Her CBS online clip this week is entirely devoted to her social game, and how she's watching and listening to everybody, gathering what she can to use to her advantage down the road.  She also shows off her shoes and explains that she bought the loudest, brightest shoes she could (apparently they even glow in the dark) and wore pink so that people can always see her coming and know where she is.  They can feel comfortable with that.  She's not so much flying under the radar, as becoming such a clear presence on it that they forget to watch her.

I have no idea if this will work (though it makes sense to me), but what I really like about it is the originality.  This isn't a move cribbed out of Boston Rob's playbook or Russell's or Parvati's.  This is something that Dawson sat down and thought up by herself when preparing for the game.  It's an approach tailored to her personality and her gameplay.

Yet she is not a strategic player and apparently has no aspirations to a grand scheme of puppetmastery.  I am delighted by that.  While it's always fun to watch the puppetmasters, I like seeing variety in the players, and controlling the overall game is not as important as controlling your own.

Yeah, like she's going to give up her crown

That's the secret of Sandra's 'Anybody but me' approach.  Let the other players occupy themselves with scheming and plotting and instead focus on where you are in the game.  Sandra (almost) always knew which way the vote was going, and even influenced it on occasion, but mostly her goal was to keep herself in as safe a position as possible.  Knowing intuitively how to tackle the jury at the end was also vital.

Dawson is probably not another Sandra, but I still have high hopes for her.  She's quite possibly got a higher IQ than Sandra (though I'd give Sandra the edge in common sense), and I'm curious to see what her take on the game ends up being.

The final item of note for Kalabaw is that both Jeff and Dana referred to a first merge.  Clearly, they (and possibly all of Kalabaw) are presuming there will be a switch to two tribes before the merge, as has happened in every previous season that started with more than two tribes.

It's smart of them to anticipate that, but I would love for the producers to stick to their guns and keep the three tribes going until a merge at twelve, even if Matsing goes the way of Ulong (though it would be a shame to lose Denise).  Throwing in a double elimination is OK, but keep the tribes separate and see what happens come the merge.  Especially if they're counting on an early reshuffle.  Keep them in suspense!

Tandang: There Goes the Tangled Web

Going by the episode, Tandang appeared to be on good form this week, cruising to a win in the immunity challenge.  I was surprised, therefore, to watch the videos on the CBS site and find that prior to the challenge, Tandang was at a very low ebb indeed.

As a frustrated Michael explained, they are a good, cohesive team; they just aren't any good at survival.  Being of an old-fashioned, play-nice school of Survivor, he didn't name any names, but it's a shock to hear that his team hadn't succeeded in making fire, even though they have flint.  They've had five days of rain, of course, and RC explained on her facebook page that the shelter was not up before the rain started.  Artis, speaking after the challenge, confirmed that they went six days without fire and therefore virtually no food, saying they were as depleted as a tribe could get.  Pete went even further, saying that he had no idea how they won the challenge, but had they lost it would have been over for the tribe.

Tandang camp: so bad that Monty Brinton waited until
the challenge to take this week's official pictures.

Clearly, that's hyperbole.  If nothing else, the despair would have continued for five of them, but really it was the rain that was the problem, and if it stays sunny for a few days, I expect all of the tribes will be feeling better.  But Tandang was hit harder than the other tribes.  For all their issues, Matsing were able to get fire before the rains started, and their shelter seems strong.  Kalabaw look like they have had success in starting fire thanks to their deluxe kit, plus they have a cave for dry storage or extra shelter.  Tandang definitely had the worst living experience of the group, not to mention a returner from a season when they were allowed to bring waterproof clothing.

And that's what we need to bear in mind when looking at what the tribemates were doing this week.  Lisa was the most obviously affected, no doubt compounded by the divorce a few days prior to going out to the Philippines.  Like Roxy, she seemed to be feeling the insincerity of game-relationships, or perhaps she just didn't want other people to see her crying, because she reacted by taking herself off to the well when she needed her moment.

This is a terrible, terrible move in Survivor, to isolate yourself voluntarily from your tribe.  Yet I have full sympathy for her.  Were I to play the game (an impossibility, but we all think about it), I'd probably need to do the same thing: find myself a solitary moment just to get my head straight from all the stress and paranoia. It would be a catch 22 situation: hoping that there's nothing going on back at camp in my absence, but fearing that I'd have some kind of meltdown and destroy my game if I didn't get a break.  I can't know what Lisa's thought processes were, but I can't blame her for this error either.

Of course, the downfall here was that everybody assumed she was looking for the idol, and it was clear from their conversation that this is not the first time she's gone off by herself.  It's such an obvious conclusion to jump to--nine times out of ten, they'd be right--and it fits in with their assumption that Lisa is shady.  I should probably note here that it's entirely possible that Lisa has been looking for the idol, and that was the only time she went off to cry instead.  However, she's not going to find it without the clue.

On the not-really-a-plus side, Lisa has succeeded in keeping her cover.  As far as we can tell, Michael is still the only person who knows she's an actress.  Personally, I am cherishing the thought that they never learn her secret and were blissfully unaware until the promos started airing and they were all: "What the... how come Lisa's getting all my screentime?"

Anyway, back to that idol clue.  Lisa narrowly missed out on spotting RC's discovery of it, but RC managed to keep her composure and come back for the clue later.  Apparently, RC was happy to retrieve the clue in Abi-Maria's presence.  Perhaps it was because she didn't want to risk waiting until she was completely alone, but either way, she trusted Abi enough for that.

Abi didn't see it that way, instead thinking it was lucky that she happened to be there when RC found the clue.  From there, her paranoia escalated until she confronted RC with her Godfather bit.  It's not the first time we've seen bullying tactics used on Survivor, and it won't be the last, but it is unusual to go down the intimidation road so early and with so little provocation.

Not to be fucked with

I have to assume that the misery of camplife was putting Abi under a lot of stress.  It's also possible that she was coming to realise that RC, the girl who looked like a simple model pre-game, was actually smarter and readier to take the initiative than Abi had bargained for, and this was all about trying to regain control.

It didn't really work.  RC was caught off-guard by the confrontation and responded meekly enough--which was possibly an act, although I think the shock of finding that she was not solid with Abi hit her hard, especially since she was probably looking to Abi for moral support too.  But RC knows what she's doing in this game and sooner or later she'll rally and adapt her gameplan... this time marginalising Abi-Maria.

The other problem with the confrontation is that it hinted at Abi's age.  Bullies aren't necessarily older, but intimidation tactics are usually used by older people on younger ones.  If Abi wants to play that she's in her mid-twenties or so and be underestimated, she really can't be going down the godfather route.  I can't see how she can recover from this mistake, so she's going to need to adjust the gameplan.

Part of the problem for both girls is that the tribes were so small.  Both have seen enough of the show to know the types of people that get cast and make up a typical tribe.  They were looking for the bubbly but clueless girl to befriend and lead, but there wasn't one on their tribe.  Similarly, they wanted to find the guy who was all ego and muscles but no head for the game, and since Pete looked the part, they tried to make him fit it.

Pete's plan, of course, was to hide his intelligence, so he should have been happy to be underestimated in this fashion.  But then came the challenge, and with Tandang's morale so low, everybody was hungry to win.  Pete and RC stepped up to do the puzzle, both putting aside the fact that they were trying to hide how much of an all-rounder they could be at challenges.  They delivered a blinding performance giving Tandang the victory.  Cue confessionals from half the tribe describing how tribe morale had gone through the roof.

The breakdown of roles at the challenge was a little interesting.  Abi-Maria explained in an online video that she figured she could do all of the elements of the challenge, but she didn't shine at any of them, and other people were so keen to step up that she felt she would 'sacrifice' herself and sit out.  Curiously, it sounded as if she just announced this to Jeff without discussing it with her tribe, but I'm going to assume there was agreement beforehand, since nobody else commented on it.

What was notable was that Abi looked decidedly cheesed off as she explained this; it's hard to resent a win, but it's also not great if your tribe performs excellently without you.  Similarly, I was surprised Artis didn't put himself forward for the puzzle.  As a computer engineer, I would expect him to be decent at puzzles, but perhaps I'm wrong.  Alternatively, RC and Pete might have been insistent that they would be the ones to do the puzzle, or Artis might be trying to hide his intelligence too (and thus doing a better job of sticking to his guns than the younger pair).

Still, the only security Artis has in his tribe is that Lisa will go before him, and that's not much.  He's good and strong physically, but his age is always a red flag.  If he'd performed well in the puzzle, that would have raised his stock.  As it is, they can view him as disposable: "If we get rid of Artis, we've still got Pete and Michael to get us through challenges."

In similar trouble is Lisa.  She did put herself forward, but as a caller, and neither RC nor Pete credited her for their success with the puzzle.  Pete, in an online video proving that his ego was able to withstand the elements, laid claim to doing all of the challenge, carrying the physical and puzzle portions.  RC declared on Facebook (RC has won that coveted reward of my eternal gratitude with her Facebook page) that the puzzle happened to be one that her brother had downloaded for her to practice on, so she took over, ignoring what Lisa was saying.

RC concluded her Facebook update by noting that challenge proved that they had a great, four-strong challenge team and that Lisa and Abi-Maria were deadweight in that regard.  Damning words--though I assume events will not prove them a spoiler, since RC's smart enough to understand CBS' contract.

Tandang's challenge team ponder their next step:
an American remake of The Full Monty

Beyond the morale boost of victory, they now have dry conditions to make fire and the reward of a tarp in case the rain returns--plus comfort items and the rope that tied everything together.  Less stressful conditions plus the younger half of the tribe breaking their cover means that the stage is set for a potential shift in dynamics.

The previews suggested that Pete and Lisa would have a bonding moment (I hope so, since I'd like to see a return to the computer geek side of Pete rather than the manic ego side).  Even without this tip off, the game's been on for a week, everybody's adjusting to their new lifestyle, and I would expect Lisa to start getting over her First Week Breakdown™.  She's been lucky to avoid Tribal Council for this first stretch, but she still has a lot of ground to make up, shaking everybody's early impression of her and making friends!  We'll see if she can do it.

Michael will no doubt be encouraging her, since she could be a very loyal ally to him as I discussed last week.  Furthermore, since Abi created a rift between herself and RC, RC is bound to draw closer to Michael, her father figure on this island, both emotionally and strategically.  RC swam the English Channel in a relay with her real father; she's up for an adventurous partnership and could be this season's replacement for Australia's Nick, as far as Michael is concerned.

Also of relevance, in the game, immediately after the challenge, RC was bubbling over what a great team she and Pete had made during the puzzle, that they just clicked and worked together perfectly.  While challenge partnerships often have no bearing on strategic ones, it's still worth mentioning that RC's perspective of 'Dumb' Pete has shifted to one where they can work together on an intellectual level.  It's possible she could start making a direct connection with him rather than going through Abi-Maria.

We don't know Pete's plans, but it seems unlikely that he has settled for a flirtation with Abi as his one lifeline in the game, not when he wanted to be the puppet master of the tribe.  I expect that either he's discovered this isn't as easy as he thought or he's deluding himself that he's in charge, but we'll have to wait and see which it is.

Anyway you look at it, Abi-Maria's gamestock plummeted this episode.  She's going to have to step up her game, make new bonds and reaffirm old ones.  I don't think she's at the bottom of the totem pole, but she's handicapped her chances going forwards.  Intriguingly, she and RC are still tied by the clue.  Presumably they will collaborate on solving it, but surely both girls are now less willing to let the other be the holder.  Will Abi try and guilt RC into letting her hold it by way of 'proving' her trust?  Will either girl try and get the idol in secret?  I can't wait to see what's going to happen there.

I'm all out of contrived segues.  Let's just get to Kalabaw.

Matsing: Control Freak Out

In a video on the CBS site this week, Tandang's Artis expressed surprise that Matsing had voted out one of their strong guys first, which handicapped them enormously during the sled-pulling portion of this week's challenge.  He's right, but he's probably also unaware that Zane had been so winded after a simple sprint last week.  I can't imagine that Zane would have fared any better than Angie with the sleds.

Unfortunately for Matsing, they were given a guy with no stamina and two girls whose strength was short-distance running.  We learned from Crystal Cox in Gabon that running skill does not cross over well in Survivor challenges, and the fiasco of last week's challenge made both Roxy and Angie reluctant to step-up this week.  And so, despite how alliances fell last week, this week's vote had to be between Roxy and Angie.

Last week, I theorised that Roxy might have joined a majority alliance with Malcolm, Denise and Angie, however, this week it quickly became clear that wasn't the case.  She and Angie were not getting on (possibly due to knowing it would be one or the other of them going), and she had formed a bond with Russell.  Her case for staying therefore hinged on Angie's closeness to Malcolm, highlighting the two of them as a showmance and a danger going forwards.

Give it another couple of weeks, and we'll
know how this guy looks with a beard.

Even without being on the chopping block, I expect Roxy would have been unhappy with the pair.  Before the game started, she was worried that she'd end up being on the same tribe as Pete, describing him as a Disney Prince Charming.  She's right--Pete is the spitting image of The Little Mermaid's Prince Eric; I'm not sure that this is a good thing, but Roxy considered him to be so handsome that she was afraid he would be able to exploit her in the game.  We'll never know what would have happened if Pete had swapped places with Malcolm (hopefully not a gender-switched version of Brandon's crusade against Mikayla in South Pacific), but it's clear that Roxy felt romance and Survivor don't mix.

Angie was blissfully ignorant of this and needed Malcolm to explain to her what Roxy was doing.  Malcolm at least retained the self-awareness to know he was making a mistake, but he still couldn't stop himself making it.  As Denise ruefully observed, he's only twenty-four and a pretty blonde makes a good distraction from the rain and misery.  He did describe it as a sister relationship at Tribal Council, which I don't think was entirely accurate.  I wonder how much of that was convincing himself, with the intention of staying focused on the game in the future?

While Malcolm's game requires keeping a clear head, Angie always intended to flirt.  However, right now she's flirting for protection and tips on playing the game, rather than to manipulate Malcolm.  It's still a huge benefit for her, but she's got a long way to go before she holds any sway over him, and I'm not sure she's got the ability to play that game.  On the other hand, if she squeaks through to the merge with Malcolm and if he gets voted off in the early jury stage and if she has learned enough of what he's taught her to slip through to the finals, she could parlay this relationship into a winning gameplan.

There were three 'if's in the above sentence, and that was a condensed list of conditions.  I am still not holding out a lot of hope for Angie.

Her immediate goal should really be to displace Denise in Malcolm's hierarchy, and this was the argument Roxy and Russell used, that whoever else Malcolm and Angie aligned with would be a third wheel at best.  True, in a final three situation, that would still be enough to get you to the end, but it's never a comfortable place to be.  On the other hand, Denise might well have figured that she was going to be the third in an alliance with Roxy and Russell, too.

Last week, I speculated that Denise might want to vote off Angie, but that was assuming Roxy to be a neutral player.  Once it was established she was closer to Russell than Denise, there was less of a gain to be made in voting off Angie.  At least if Angie stuck around, Denise had the comfort of knowing she and Malcolm had made an alliance that pre-dated Angie's relationship with him.  She does not necessarily have that with Russell.

That would not be my best guess for why Denise voted for Roxy though.  The answer to that lies in the challenge.

It's really difficult to judge which girl is the weaker link.  Roxy admitted that she was a weak swimmer when talking to Dalton Ross about her most embarrassing moment (from EW.com), but she has had military training so she must have a decent level of fitness, while we have no idea about Angie's.

Both girls tried to get out of running twice in the challenge, which is really not a good sign for either of them (neither of them were involved in the puzzle either).  However, Roxy was the one who said she couldn't do it because she hadn't drunk enough water.  In other words, she was admitting that she hadn't bothered preparing for the challenge.  Ultimately, it was Angie who did the run twice, and while she had fought against doing it and had to be encouraged by Russell to keep going through the second run, she did pull it off and gave them a fighting chance at the puzzle.

So the biggest distinction between the two girls in challenges thus far was that Angie kept going when Roxy gave up.  In Denise's pre-game confessional on the CBS site last week, she was talking about how she would use her therapist skills in the game, and mentioned supporting her allies to prevent them from quitting.  She went on to cite Na'Onka and Purple Kelly from Nicaragua who both infamously quit at the end game, leaving their allies high and dry.

She's more comfortable this way

Going even further back to Denise's first video on the CBS site, she talked about how she'd looked through the seasons, calculating the risk of getting a serious injury.  Quitting and med-evacs: two game-events that are largely (though not entirely) out of the players' control.  Denise seems like a type-A personality (as overused a phrase that is); is her focus on minimising the parts of her game that are out of her control?

We've seen this before, certainly.  Back in Samoa, on the luckless Foa Foa tribe, Liz wanted their first boot to be Mike, their oldest player, seeing him as a physical liability.  Marisa got voted off instead, only for Mike to be med-evaced during their next immunity loss, and Foa Foa still had to go to Tribal Council.  Liz promptly targeted the next oldest player, Betsy, and remained on the vote-off-the-weak tactic from then on, which resulted in her own boot right before the merge.

I can't see a situation in which Denise's fear of quitters would cause her to sabotage her own game in that manner, but it's worth bearing in mind.  It could have been her primary motivation in voting off both Zane and Roxy, and it might blind her to the long-term consequences of her actions, making it a weakness for a truly savvy player to exploit.

Was Roxy a risk to quit?  She was certainly struggling more than anybody else with the rain, and Denise was surprised when (once the sun came out) Roxy suddenly started stirring things up and scrambling to save herself.  I expect that Denise had given up on Roxy long before the immunity challenge, and one day of sunshine was not enough to shake her estimation of the younger woman--certainly not when there was no guarantee they weren't going straight into another week of rain.

The rain hit everybody hard, of course; Russell was getting flashbacks to Samoa and even our resident cocky superfan, Malcolm, looked on the verge of tears.  The clue to Roxy's particular difficulty comes in an online clip on the CBS site, where she talked about how she couldn't get a genuine moment.  Nobody's really making friends out there; they're just making connections to get to themselves to the end, and she couldn't fake the social brightness and interest for that.  She wanted something real.

I am willing to bet good money that Angie never saw it that way.  I'm sure Angie was suffering with the rain just as much as everybody else, but she was finding comfort in her relationship (platonic or romantic) with Malcolm, never considering that it was an insincere one.

The thing is, they're both right.  It's often said that you don't go on Survivor to make friends but to win the money.  On the other hand, most of us would never make it to the end if we didn't find a friend to help us along the way.  Some players can--Russell Hantz springs to mind--and it's one way in which the game is easier for returners, just due to knowing they've done it before.  Still the majority of homo sapiens are not able to get through hardships and deprivations that they've never experienced before without having some form of emotional support.

In that respect, I think Malcolm and Angie's dalliance was both genuine and necessary (if OTT) on both sides, as well as being part of their gameplan.  Russell's done this before, and probably has the edge on returners when it comes to rain experience (though Jonathan got his share in Micronesia), and Denise--well, she's more educated about this kind of thing than I am, so I'm sure she figured out her coping mechanism.  Roxy couldn't accept her tribemates' support and could not find solace in prayer as she had expected.

Players often rebound from early struggles (see Nicaragua's Holly and South Pacific's Dawn), but sometimes they don't (see Micronesia's Kathy), and with no way of knowing how hard conditions are going to get, Denise might well have not wanted to take the risk.

There are other factors--Roxy's work ethic for example.  She had her own opinions on the work issue, and why she was doing what she was doing, but ultimately, following the tribe's lead is the better policy.  Aside from anything else, Roxy played herself up as a loyal soldier who would follow orders at the first Tribal Council.  Her actions should have matched those words, if that was her strategy.

There's also the not insignificant point that Roxy was more game savvy than Angie.  Denise was choosing in whose alliance she would be third.  She already had an alliance in place with Malcolm, and while Angie might be a threat down the road, she's a known quantity.  She had no agreement that we know of with Russell, and had just realised that she had underestimated Roxy to start with.

Eliminating Roxy from the equation means that Denise can carry on scheming with Malcolm in a position of trust.  Russell's just lost the closest thing he had to an ally, so she can bring him in as her own voting-buddy, should she need to counter the Malcolm-Angie pair.  Should Matsing lose for a third time, she and Russell have a good argument for letting Angie, the last weak link, go without losing Malcolm's trust.

I would fully expect Malcolm to try and swoop in on Russell too, since they were in an alliance at one time, the one initiated by Zane.  It's not clear that they've kept that up, and Russell certainly didn't seem to be counting on it, but I think Malcolm would be smart enough to keep that relationship going.  However, Russell is wary of Angie's hold on him, and will probably feel more comfortable bonding with Denise.

There is no suggestion that anybody knows of Malcolm and Denise's alliance, plus these two are clearly the strongest in challenges (note that Malcolm was willing to abandon the dumb façade and do the puzzle this week).  I'm fairly sure that the worst case scenario voting order is Angie then Russell, leaving Malcolm and Denise to be returning players for the next available season.

To briefly detail my thoughts on Cookiegate (because RHAW's Andy Baker said I had to): storm in a teacup.  I'd give Angie the credit for knowing that she couldn't actually indicate her (or Malcolm's) actual gameplans, and she probably didn't have the courage to say "Voting Roxy off instead of me," which was probably her biggest concern.  I expect "Cookies" was just the first neutral thing to pop into her head.  Meanwhile, like most Survivors who get stroppy at Tribal Council, Roxy almost certainly knew she was going and opted to go out swinging.

The only other thing I want to touch base on with Matsing is the idol.  There's absolutely no indication that Russell is looking for it.  He might not have had a chance to, since everybody's been hanging around camp in the rain and working on improving the shelter, but similarly, he should be confident that nobody else has found it (which would be virtually impossible without the clue anyway).

He'd rather be idol hunting.  So he says.

Malcolm, on the other hand, revealed in his CBS webclip that he really wants to get away from the others and look for the idol now that the sun has come out.  Assuming it to be hidden like the idols in recent seasons, he's waiting for his chance to go away from camp and check out a few likely places.

Clearly, these efforts are doomed to failure unless he happens across Russell's clue.  Nevertheless, he revealed that 'we' don't think Russell has the idol, based on what went down the previous Tribal Council (presumably all the stress Russell was in without actually playing an idol).  He's also eliminated Roxy and Angie from the possibility of finding it and thinks Denise would tell him if she had.

It's clear that Malcolm's still very confident in his alliance with Denise and I presume that 'we' refers to the two of them--Angie might be included, but I lean towards not.  I am not so sure that he would tell Denise if he found the idol.

Still, Denise might be closer to the idol than Malcolm is.  If Russell decides to share the clue or idol with anybody on Matsing, my guess would be Denise.  Between that and her potential for allies, she has the best chance of anybody on Matsing to advance in the game.

The only problem there is that nobody on Matsing is currently in a prime spot for game advancement.  Unlike, say, Tandang.

Gone too soon...

The editors are fast throwing away all the goodwill they earned from me last time.  At this point, I am praying for Kalabaw to go to Tribal Council just so that we can get to hear from somebody who isn't Jeff or Jonathan, and I am praying for Lisa, Jeff, or one of the returners to get voted off, in the hopes that the promos might remember there are twelve other people out there.

Well, eleven now.  And I suppose I should point out that I use pray in its metaphorical sense there, because I feel a bit presumptuous asking an omnipotent being to influence the outcome of a gameshow.  I'm really not a praying person in general, but I am interested in how people draw from their religion, and it's something I have no objection to watching.  Before the game started, I said I was most interested in watching Roxy, because I thought an army chaplain (in training) could have such a big influence on their tribe.  Perhaps an older, more experienced one would have done.  In that respect, Roxy disappointed.

That did not stop my husband and myself having our own little 'Save Roxy' party tonight, when she started rolling her eyes and calling Angie out at Tribal Council.  I'm sure Jeff would have joined us; you could tell he'd rather have a disciple of Eliza Orlins rather than the girl he didn't want to cast in the first place.  I think the tribe probably made the right decision, but I would have loved to have seen more Roxy.  A great shame that she was one of the victims of the traditional first week breakdown--I think had she had a few more days, she'd have moved past it as so many players do.

In my pre-game assessment, I said of Roxy:

Roxy herself seems to be there more for a personal journey than to win, inspired by Redemption Island's Matt rather than South Pacific's Upolu, so I'm not sure she's got the gameplay she'll need, although she is at least a fan.

In all that cold and rain, I think she got a personal journey, and I expect her Survivor experience will help her in her future work, even though we didn't get to see a vice versa effect.  Beyond that, I'd say she did have a fair amount of gameplay to her... she just started far too late.

Full breakdown on Sunday evening again!  If you look at the tabs below the title of the blog, you'll notice that there is now a "Philippines Analysis" page.  This takes you to all the posts tagged with Philippines, i.e. the 'index' entries of my main episode analyses and my pre-game assessment.  I'm hoping that will be a more easily navigable archive as we progress through the season.  Unfortunately, Blogger's little archive gadget seen at right doesn't have a filter by tag option, so it's still going to be an imperfect set-up.

This quite possibly bothers absolutely nobody but myself.

Philippines episode 1

A quick note: I'm experimenting with the format of these entries.  When I wrote for Reality News Online, my reams of text were considerately broken up into pages for me by the editors.  Now that I'm doing this in blog form, I'm trying to figure out the best way of making my lengthy entries accessible for the online reader.  This week, I'm breaking it up into separate entries by tribe, but this is unlikely to last for the entire season (if nothing else, it won't work post-merge).  

Feedback on this would definitely be welcome!


Three tribes and ninety minutes added up to a great foundation for this season.  Although only Matsing went to Tribal Council, there's already a definite hierarchy forming on Tandang while conflict is brewing at Kalabaw.  Half the cast have hit the ground running when it comes to their gameplay, and even the immunity challenge was crossing over into strategy territory.

Follow the links below for my breakdown of each tribe.  Usually, most of my information for these analyses come from the web clips on the CBS site.  However, as with previous seasons, this week's webclips are mostly pre-game confessionals.  They contain some indication as to how the player wants to play, but they are also heavily focused on their backgrounds (and, this year, how they feel about the risk of medical evacuation).  Fortunately, members of the press were around for the taping of the first episode and both EW's Dalton Ross and Xfinity's Gordon Holmes provided a few behinds the scenes tidbits in their respective recaps.

Matsing

Kalabaw

Tandang

As I said after the episode aired, I'm pleased with how things went down.  The one thing I do wonder is if the show's efforts to stop the predictable post-merge game will create a predictable pre-merge game.  We already have a four person alliance on Tandang, along with a potential one on Matsing.  Kalabaw's still an unknown quantity, but with the other tribes, it already seems clear who is safe and who is disposable.  Thanks to the small size of the tribes, there's little room for a rival alliance to shake up the majority.  I suppose we'll see how it pans out; if there's a reshuffle after another episode or two, the current pecking order won't matter.

Tandang: the Joy of Secrets

Kalabaw has Jeff hiding his fame, and Matsing has Malcolm hiding his education... but that has nothing on Tandang's tribe of charlatans.  Lisa and Pete have the secret fame and education covered, RC's lying about her career, Abi's fibbing about her age, and I'm pretty sure that Artis is concealing his history of cancer.  Skupin's the only one who is being open about who he is, and he doesn't have any choice in the matter!

Of course, out of all the tribes, Tandang is probably the most eager to play.  Artis has been applying since season one, Lisa and RC have been avid fans since then and Michael's been wanting a second shot since his med-evac.  Abi and Pete are probably newer to the show, but they are no less enthusiastic about kicking their game into high gear.

The latter two and RC set right about the business of playing their social game with each other.  Abi got RC alone and promptly proposed an alliance to her, turning her charm up to eleven.  RC returned fire with a barrage of charisma as she accepted.  There was a lot of bubbly hair-flipping, giggling hysteria and jumpy hand-holding before the pair were satisfied that they could move onto their next targets. 

May the Battle Royale of Flirting commence!

In Abi's case, that was the only guy under fifty, Pete, for the flirting side of her game.  He soon picked up that she was making eyes at him and eagerly seized the opportunity to start his flirting game.  This mutual exploitation is not going to make for a compelling showmance, but I am entertained.

For now, at least, they're all succeeding at their self-portrayals.  I suspect that 24 year old Pete would not be so ready to flirt with a woman eight years older than him.  If nothing else, he must think Abi-Maria is more naïve than she actually is (she's made her accent and cultural differences work for her; respect).  Meanwhile, the two women decided that Pete was dumb, so he's succeeded in passing himself off as nothing more than a model.

As ever, I doubt they can really keep up the deceptions in the long term (except RC's executive assistant lie, which is unlikely to get disproved unless they strike up really in depth conversations about their careers).  However, with a group this gregarious, they might be having so much fun by that point that they won't care.

... And then there's the fourth member of their alliance: Michael.  The most iconic of the returning players, he's the only one thus far whose status has helped him, since superfan RC was delighted to bring him into her alliance.  Out of the quartet, he is the odd one out; not because he has nothing to hide, not because he's so much older, not even because he's a returner.  Michael, alone of his alliance, was not ready for it.

In Australia, Michael hunted and killed a wild pig single-handed, then painted his face with its blood. In Philippines, he faced the full onslaught of RC's charm and looked... not outright afraid, but certainly apprehensive.  It was like introducing an old dog to a hyperactive puppy.  Still, he also literally jumped off a cliff in Australia; he can do a metaphorical leap into the deep end here.

Michael made perhaps the wisest observation of the returning players when he said that you have to go at the game's pace.  This game is moving a lot faster than his previous time--it's not clear if he was ever in a formal alliance in Australia.  He's now answered one of the big questions I had about Michael: he has accepted that the game has changed since he played originally and he's ready to adapt.

RC and Pete finally stopped smiling when
they lost their chance to go to Tribal Council

My new question is if he can handle his eager, young allies.  One of the problems we see in Survivor when aggressive players get together is that they come blazing out of the gate, do too much, too soon and bring each other down in a strategic implosion (see the men of One World and just about everybody on Heroes vs. Villains).  Michael would do well to be a calming influence on them (as hard as it is to watch Australia and think of Michael as a calming influence), but I'm not sure if he's got the confidence to over-rule their proposed strategies.

Right now, it seems that RC is in the driver's seat of the alliance, although most of that is because the editing used her for their narration.  However, it was notable that while Abi-Maria initiated the alliance, RC immediately started enforcing her narrative in-game with the observation that they should bring Pete in because he's brainless muscle and they should be wary of Lisa because she's suspicious.  Neither of those things is exactly accurate, but that doesn't matter.  Survivor is largely defined by perception.

RC also took the initiative before the challenge, in the Tandang Treemail clip on the CBS website.  While Lisa was away from camp, she gathered the others and, with Abi, told them that Lisa would be going home if they lost immunity.  No blindsides, cut and dried.  This smartly forestalled any scrambling after the challenge and gave people like Artis confidence that they were not on the chopping block.

Nobody spoke up to disagree, because obviously nobody wants their name put up instead.  If anybody had any discreet pro-Lisa conversations later, we didn't get to see it, although we do know that Michael wants to keep Lisa around.  He's a fan of hers, just as RC was a fan of his.  However, he's not ready to stick his neck out for her.

It's unlucky for Lisa that she's being targeted so soon, especially since her secret really is irrelevant to the game.  Her celebrity days were more than twenty years ago, she's not using Survivor as a platform for rebooting them, and she no longer has the money she made from The Facts of Life.  As she observed to Michael, nobody's talked about what they did as a child.

Michael thought that she should tell them because it would impress them, but she disagreed.  I'm with Lisa on this one.  If the younger members of the tribe are unfamiliar with her show, revealing that she was an 80s celebrity is more likely to elicit a "So what?" reaction.  Followed by: "Why are you telling us now?"  If it comes up naturally in conversation, that's one thing, but this crew is going to be very suspicious of a big announcement.

One of the things Lisa's mentioned in a few different interviews is that before filming began, when the castaways would see each other around but weren't allowed to talk, she wore a T-shirt she'd purchased off Ebay saying "June Lake 2010 Triathlon."  It was one way to fake them out that she was more physically fit than she actually was.  I wonder if that bit of trickery backfired on her, becoming the basis for RC's suspicions.

Either way, Lisa is on the outs and although Michael is in her corner, he's not actually stepping in to try and protect her.  It's always a dicey prospect, speaking up against your alliance in favour of somebody else, but letting them get voted out isn't good either.  In One World, Jonas regretted letting Bill get voted off, because he had been closer to Bill than anybody else.  In South Pacific, Coach got Mikayla voted off instead of Edna, because Edna was closer to him, while Mikayla was closer to his allies, (and fellow finalists) Albert and Sophie.  In Heroes vs. Villains, Cirie fought to save Candice, got herself voted out for her pains, yet had no regrets.

Michael sticks his neck out for Lisa.
Not quite what I had in mind.

Etc.  I've always been of the opinion that it's better to stick your neck out than to let somebody you trust completely get voted off.  Lisa could be a tremendous ally for Michael, much moreso than the cut-throat younger group.  That's worth fighting for.

The same applies to Artis.  I wonder if any of the older players tried to start up their own alliance.  RC's swift appropriation of Michael probably wrecked any chances of getting one off the ground, but I'd like to think somebody tried.  We don't know what Artis is doing game-wise, but he's not in the alliance and, unlike Lisa, he doesn't even have somebody rooting for him to stay.  If Michael does decide to stick his neck out for Lisa, it will almost certainly be Artis going under the bus.

Kalabaw: Picking a Side

Is this the face of a man who does not
know what he's doing?

Kalabaw had the most skewed edit out of any of the tribes, with the focus being entirely on the returning player, Jonathan, and the celebrity, Jeff, the stage set for a showdown between these two.  Actually, thus far the feud is one-sided, with Jeff gunning for Jonathan and Jonathan not paying the slightest bit of attention to Jeff.  Jonathan is focused on his own game.

Jonathan is also exceedingly helpful, since he outlined his game on Twitter for our benefit: "Knew I had to 1)engender trust 2)WIN challenges 3)seek idol. Did all even if they only showed 2&3!!"  I'll cover all of those in due course, but we'll start with the idol, since that's what was being played up.

I can't really fault Jonathan for being keen to find the idol.  Ever since his first season, the winner of the game usually has the idol or is allied with the idol holder.  Even if, like One World's Kim, you don't use the idol, possessing it means that your voting target doesn't.

On the flipside, looking for it has been increasingly seen as threatening behaviour.  It's a great way to get yourself put on other players' radars.  This very episode, Russell deflected Zane by saying if he thought anybody was looking for the idol, he was going to vote them out.  Jonathan was the only person the episode showed looking for the idol, and while this is unlikely to be the actual case, it does serve to show that the other players' time was spent more effectively when building alliances.

In Jonathan's case, you can at least argue that he was already on everybody's radar.  But, honestly, looking for an idol has never worked out for Jonathan.  In Cook Islands, he mutinied in part because he thought Adam had the idol and wanted to ally with the idol holder--the irony being that his previous ally (and eventual winner), Yul, had the idol all along.  In Micronesia, Yau-Man nominated him to go to Exile Island (thus having a chance to find the idol), and in so doing lost them the majority vote.  Cirie explained in her Reality News Online interview for that season:

I went to Exile Island the first time with Kathy, she and I found all four clues. I saw Yau-Man’s season and I saw how he was with Earl sharing the idol, I saw Earl could trust him. I thought maybe if I could give him the last clue and eliminate the time he spent searching, we could share it.

I went to him with that deal and he agreed. I said the only thing we have to is that you have to be the next one to go. When it came time to send one of us, Yau-Man suggested we send Jonathan. That threw up 10,000 red flags.

The above is corroborated in Jonathan's interview, with the explanation: "He felt he needed to distract the rest of us from suspecting the alliance [with Cirie], which I never suspected."  While Jonathan was a victim of circumstance there, (and rebounded from the setback--until his injury), he seems cursed when it comes to idol-hunting.  This season, looking for it has given Jeff fuel to use against him.

The edit is bound to be misleading when it comes to just how much time he spent looking for the idol.  In episode, we saw him using a rainstorm to search while the rest of his tribe were huddled in a cave (they all knew full well why he was out there).  On the web, we see that he actually found the clue after the immunity challenge.  He suggested that everybody go down to the beach for a celebratory dip, then made an excuse of forgetting something and ran back to camp--taking a tip from Boston Rob's Redemption Island playbook.

On the other hand, he hasn't been entirely secretive.  One of Entertainment Weekly's pre-season teasers described how he'd been giving Katie tips on searching for the idol.  We don't know if that was before or after Katie's in-episode complaint about his idol-hunting, but it's a pretty friendly, ally-courting thing to do.  If nothing else, it's an open admission that everybody is wondering where the idol is to some degree.  He's tried to create a permissive climate for idol-searching, even if he made sure that nobody saw him actually find the clue.

Meanwhile, Jeff's trying to create a climate of ill-feeling towards returning players.  I'm not entirely sure why Jeff was targeting Jonathan straight out of the gate.  Maybe he feels threatened by him as a player, maybe he wants to distract everybody from his knee, maybe they butted heads while building camp (though I'd assume we'd have seen it if so).  My bet would be that he just wants to play the game, and targeted Jonathan as the biggest rival available.

It should be noted that it's not a bad move.  Putting up a name for the first vote is a great way to start taking control of the game.  Nobody's going to disagree, because they don't want to be the replacement.  Players seem to be more worried about "Not me" in the first few days rather than who actually does go, which can be a mistake (see also Tandang where a similar scenario went down).

Dawson knows something
you don't know...

If Jeff's motivations are unknown, his influence is even moreso.  In episode, everybody seemed to be anti-Jonathan, but the only person we saw pro-Jeff was Dana.  We heard so little from Katie and Carter, that we have to leave them as unknown quantities for the moment.

And then there's Dawson, who was the one player to recognise Jeff.  Dawson chose to sit on that little tidbit of information, which is good news for Jeff, since she could have used it to sabotage his game.  On the other hand, she hasn't told him she recognised him either, which does not bode well for our resident baseball MVP.  Over on Tandang, Michael let Lisa know he knew who she was because he was a big fan.  If Dawson hasn't said anything to Jeff, chances are that she is not a big fan.

Obviously, she could have other reasons.  She might be merely non-committal, or she might be afraid that telling Jeff would get him targetting her.  Or maybe she wants to save it up until she's sitting next to Jeff at Final Tribal Council.  But Jeff's been a polarising figure in baseball (so they tell me), and I am leaning towards the interpretation that Dawson doesn't fancy Jeff Kent as an ally.

In that case, how important is this information to Dawson?  Well, this is a pretty definite deception on Jeff's part.  He's earned a fortune through baseball, and he's covering that up.  Moreover, much of his argument against Jonathan "He's had his shot; this is our game!" could also be applied to celebrities: "He's had his moment; this is our turn!"  If Dawson wanted to turn the tribe against Jeff, she probably could do.

She could also use it to take his allies for herself.  We don't know of any definite alliances on Kalabaw, but Dana was eyeing Jeff up for a potential alliance, due to their shared southern bonds.  This is ironic, considering Dana's a lesbian and Jeff Kent's formerly taken a stand against gay marriage.  Even if Dana has already taken into account the possibility that her Southern homeboy has conservative political views, she's taken him to be an honest type, and won't care for the deception.

The fact that Dana was looking to Jeff, a guy twelve years older than her, for an alliance, suggests that she has not formed a connection with the younger people.  Dana's thirty-two, so she's closer in age to the younger group (Katie is the youngest of the tribe at twenty-two), but she feels more comfortable around Jeff.  Losing her image of him could hit her very hard; might she end up on the rebound, ripe for an alliance of Dawson's picking?

Perhaps the real question is how important is Dawson to her tribe?  She's confident and excited to play the game she loves; she's also zany and ready to make friends. (I've a feeling she said she wanted to get to know the girl with the tattoos--i.e. Dana--pre-game, but I can't find it in my notes, so perhaps that was somebody else).  She's almost certainly got a better social game than Jeff or Jonathan, and she's the most dynamic of the younger Kalabaws.

Because of this, I would say that if any player on Kalabaw wanted to get a majority, they should focus on Dawson first.  There's no indication that she's interested in picking a side, but right now the showdown between Jeff and Jonathan hinges on her (admittedly, there have to be a wealth of factors that we didn't see in episode).

I have already inferred that she is not interested in a Jeff alliance.  What about Jonathan?  Dawson's a big fan; she's got an opinion of him.  We just don't know what it is.  That said, even if it was a negative one, Coach has shown us that you can revise preconceptions very quickly.  Dawson was on puzzle duty with Jonathan at the challenge, so she's already had a chance to work with him--and to great success too, since they overtook Tandang's lead for a narrow victory.  That's a bonding experience, right there.

OK, so I have an element of wishful thinking here.  I've been hoping for a Dawson/Penner alliance all along, and I really really want it to happen.  But the possibility is definitely still open.

And this brings us back to Jonathan Penner, and his engendering trust agenda.  Before the game he acknowledged that being a returning player and having his game known could be a blessing or a curse, and he had to make it a blessing by making himself vital to the tribe.  He started early on, when there was one chicken remaining on the marooning boat after the deadline had passed; he grabbed it from the water (source: Dalton Ross's recap).  He helped them build camp, he passed on tips for finding an idol... for all we know, the latter was the beginning of an alliance with Katie.

I'm a little hesitant to trust Jonathan's abilities in reassuring others, considering he has a pretty mixed record with this.  However, he proved his worth in the challenge.

Kalabaw did a sterling job in the challenge.  Yes, Dana and Katie got them off to a bad start, but everybody else was right where they should have been: their strongest players on the boat and the smartest players on the puzzle.  I don't know if it was Jonathan who prepped them for the challenge, but Kalabaw knew their strengths and played to them.

Even if Jonathan had no say on who did what, he proved himself to still be a contender in puzzles.  Jonathan's taken the role of puzzle person on before, in both Cook Islands and Micronesia, and he is good at it.  So often a challenge is won or lost on the puzzle that any tribe should think twice before voting out their 'puzzle person'.

If Dawson doesn't decide the fates of Jeff and Jonathan, that puzzle-ability might.  Even without his knee injury, it's unlikely Jeff brings anything to challenges that Carter (twenty years his junior) doesn't bring more of.  Who's going to replace Jonathan in puzzles?  Dawson might be just as good or better, but he's the one who's proven himself.

Time to break out the puppy dog eyes

I should also take into account the possibility that neither Jeff nor Jonathan will be the first to go from the tribe, since the showdown might be deferred while they get rid of a more obvious weak link.  Was Dawson put on the puzzle solely to avoid having her in a physical leg? (I doubt it; Dawson looked very much involved. Still she admitted she wasn't going to be able to compete on a physical level.)  Was Dana and Katie's effort representative of their overall challenge ability?  I'm not sure that struggling to untie knots can be representative, but I did note that at one point, Katie was just sitting there watching Matsing while Dana was still working on a knot.  We do know that Dana is not confident in her swimming ability, but on the other hand, she wasted no time diving into the ocean during the marooning.

At this point, we can only be sure that Carter's not going anywhere (and this is Survivor, so we shouldn't even be sure of that).  But if I'm correct in thinking that Dana is isolated from the younger group, she could end up being an easy target while said young group procrastinate on picking a side.

Dana can at least take comfort from the knowledge that I am terrible with predictions. Since my Kalabaw speculations can only get more crazy from here, let's move onto Tandang.

Matsing: When Challenge and Strategy Collide

Let's start with Matsing... Let's start with Russell.

Russell digs a hole, possibly for himself.

Russell said he was going to avoid the leadership role, and promptly went straight into dictator mode.  When asked at Tribal Council, he didn't believe he had taken the mantle of leadership until the challenge.  That shows such a lack of self-awareness that I have crossed him off my list of people with any hope of winning.  If you don't know how you're coming across to the tribe, you can't make a jury vote for you.

On the other hand, he would probably have got away with it if it hadn't been for the challenge.  Everybody looks to the returning players for advice, and while his tribe were rolling their eyes behind his back, nobody had any actual complaints from what we've seen about how he got the camp set up.  Actually, the camp looks pretty good.  They had fire without flint, and Zane's secret scene on the CBS site shows them working on the roof of their shelter, using giant banana leaves to make it as rainproof as possible.

Then came the challenge, and this was where Russell threw it all away.  Returning players have had direct experience in Survivor challenges and should know how to tackle them.  In the first episode of South Pacific, Coach was advising his tribe how to get over the wall in the obstacle course for immunity, which helped them to victory.  Russell, on the other hand, would have been hard put to make things worse.

Of the three legs, the running was the probably the least important as in I imagine it took the least time--and most of that was probably on the knots. (Gordon Holmes who ran the challenge on the press tour states in his recap that the distance was only about 150 yards.)  Zane struggled with the run, but Tandang didn't have much of a lead on Matsing at that point.

The paddling and swimming would have been the most gruelling portion (see Dalton Ross's EW recap).  I was surprised when RC nominated two strong men for that leg, when she's possibly the best swimmer out there, but I think she made the right call.  The paddlers had to head out several hundred yards into a strong wind and then push a heavy crate back, which would have required muscle and stamina rather than particular swimming speed or skill.

Finally, there's the puzzle portion, and if there's one thing anybody should have learned from watching Survivor at home, it's that most challenges are won or lost on the puzzles.  You need to know who your puzzle people are going to be.

Russell nominated Roxy and Angie for the puzzle.  Angie explained that she was no good at puzzles and wanted to run, and in Zane's Reality TV World interview, we learn that Roxy said the same thing.  Instead, Russell put himself in running, which was a waste of the muscle he provides to the team.  It would seem far more sensible to put Russell on the boat instead of Denise.  My guess is that Denise and Malcolm are the smartest of the tribe, so Denise might well have made a better job of the puzzle.  Putting Zane on the puzzle too wouldn't have hurt, since he didn't have the stamina for either of the other legs.

Of course, I've no idea how good a swimmer Russell is.  Denise said she volunteered for the swimming portion, so he might have deferred to her there, but if he's a poor swimmer, he might have been deliberately avoiding putting himself in that spot.  If that was the case, Russell put himself in the one leg where he thought he could shine.

The problem is, everybody wants to prove themselves in the first challenge.  Nobody wants to emerge as a weak link before that first Tribal Council.  Roxy said in her pre-game interview that her strength was in short distance running and she was hoping she could be useful to her tribe in that regard.  At Tribal Council, Angie explained that she did track in high school.  Both girls saw their chance to shine in the challenge, but found themselves forced to highlight a weakness instead.  They looked totally demoralised before the challenge even started.  By the time of their inevitable loss, they were outright resentful.

It doesn't help that Angie came into the game looking to prove herself anyway.  Jeff Probst made it pretty clear in his pre-game interviews that he hadn't been in favour of casting her.  I assume he wouldn't have told Angie that directly, but it's possible she picked up on it.  She knows she's the youngest person out there and looks like a Barbie.  And, on the boat, (again according to the Xfinity recap), there was a moment that did not make it onto the show, where Probst asked who wasn't prepared for the game, and Katie replied, "The blonde girl." 

All that and fishing lures for earrings

So Angie's got a chip on her shoulder.  I should admit here that I was equally dismissive of Angie's ability to play the game, so I will give her respect because, so far as I can tell, she's hit the ground running.  I don't think she's playing to any effect, but she's trying.  Witness her attempt to turn the vote against Russell as sweet revenge.  She didn't succeed, which is important to note.  But it's also important that she wasn't endangering herself by nominating him: she had the relationships with her tribemates that she was able to plot against Russell without anybody telling him.

So technically speaking, Angie is doing many of the right things, and it's not impossible that she could develop some influence over the game.  But I doubt it.  Strongly.

As of this episode, she was a pawn in other people's games.  She was the only person who fell for Zane's reverse psychology trick, and I suspect it was Malcolm who talked her into voting Zane out.  In his bid to become the game's puppetmaster, Malcolm has already tied a few strings to Angie by quite literally coming up behind her and whispering in her ear in their first hour on the beach.  Like Katie, Malcolm must have pegged Angie as an easy mark before the game ever started, and he wasted no time in moving in.

Malcolm is another player who I like much better than I expected.  For all his big talk, what was he really going to do that we hadn't seen before?  Start a fire within an hour of hitting the beach, that's what!  (Seriously, isn't this some sort of record?)  And he's been a lot more pragmatic about the game than I anticipated.  If he gloated in confessional about how he had Angie doing his bidding, we didn't see it.  Instead we saw him picking out Denise as somebody he could scheme with.

While I'm happier about watching him on my TV, I'm not necessarily more optimistic about his game chances.  Malcolm came into this game intending to hide his intelligence.  He is lying about which college he went to, and while he considers himself to be good at puzzles, he's hoping to conceal that ability to keep the target off his back.  In that respect, he should perhaps receive his own share of blame for the immunity loss, except I think that his tribe needs his brawn more than his brains.

I appreciate that nobody wants to be seen as a good all-rounder at the game, but I don't think Malcolm will be able to hide his brains for long.  His alliance with Denise is based on mutual respect for each other's intelligence.  His hold over Angie is that she trusts him to know what he's doing.  Even if he never does a puzzle, I predict his tribe will have a decent estimation of his IQ (and game-smarts) long before the merge.  He's going to get that target on his back, whether he likes it or not; what he really needs to do is find a way to keep himself vital to their game.

This is where his alliance with Denise could be a double-edged sword.  It's always good to have somebody smart to scheme with--to tout Survivor as an individual game is to miss the point that it's also a collaborative one.  On your fourth go around, you probably have enough experience to forge your own plans and have an alliance of pawns.  On a first time out, don't get too cocky; have somebody else whose opinion you can trust as a sounding board, for example, JT and Stephen in Tocantins, Sophie and Albert (and Coach) in South Pacific.

On the downside, one of you is going to lose.  In the examples I cited, all of them made it to the finals, but JT was the only person who never plotted to vote his strategy partner off, and he still readily threw Stephen under the bus at final Tribal Council (as did Sophie to Albert and Coach).  At some point, the person you allied with for their brain will use that brain against you.

She also makes him laugh. 
Perhaps best not to ask how.

Still, I love an alliance of intelligence, and this is certainly great news for Denise who is in the always dicey position of being the oldest woman on her tribe.  She's almost certainly in better shape than the other two women, which gives her some insurance, but nothing compares to an alliance for security.  It's not clear how well she bonded with everybody else on the tribe.  Intriguingly, Zane said in his xfinity interview that she was hard to get along with, difficult to read.  In-game, in his secret scene on the CBS site, he described her as "the nicest chick I've ever met."  (I am sure his wife is delighted by that.)

When did Zane change his mind?  During the game or after it?  If it was during his three days on the game, that's not good.  On the other hand, perhaps we should not read too much into Zane's opinions of anybody...

As it was, she seemed to be holding her own in her interactions with everybody.  Zane's secret scene also shows him regaling her with his Frankenstein tattoo story about how he can strangle somebody or give them a flower; she handled it pretty well (i.e. instead of stepping discreetly back from him, she made a joke about needing the machete--which went straight over his head).

Denise hasn't told anybody she's a sex therapist, but more to avoid the explanations and misconceptions about what a sex therapist really is.  She has told them she's a therapist.  This is refreshing in a season where a lot of people are lying about what they do or how educated they are.  Denise said she was going to keep things simple, and it's working out for her so far.  Perhaps people will be wary of taking a therapist to the end, but as with Malcolm, I think the cast would have the measure of Denise as a smart woman who knows how to talk to her fellow players by the merge anyway.

So if Malcolm and Denise are an alliance of two, whose votes are they counting on to make a majority?  Angie has a connection with Malcolm, while Russell is apparently on the outs.  Where does Roxy fall?  She and Angie were conspiring together on the beach, but that might have just been bonding over their shared resentment of Russell.  She's not needed for the voting majority in a tribe of five.

Originally, I thought Roxy's role in the game would be as a friend to Zane, sharing a religious bond with him and tempering his crazy behaviour.  That's no longer an option for our army chaplain.  Although Roxy came into this game with religion in mind, we never saw her mention it in the first episode: instead, it was her military background that got highlighted.

I'm very curious about Roxy's remark at Tribal Council, where she explained she went into soldier mode and followed (Russell's) orders.  She was saying it to fend off the blame for the challenge loss, but she also advertised herself as a loyal ally who will follow orders blindly.  South Pacific's Edna used a Good Soldier strategy, which earned her Coach's protection up until final six.  Roxanne, who actually is a soldier, can certainly do the same thing, although she'll have to avoid the trap Edna fell into which was becoming complacent in her security.

I wonder how disingenuous Roxy was being at Tribal Council.  Is she feeling nervous about her position and trying to get herself invited onto an alliance?  Or is she already in one and emphasising her loyalty?

The only alliances we saw made on Matsing was the brain alliance and Zane's with everybody.  When Zane tipped off Russell and Malcolm that he had also made alliances with the women, Malcolm used that information to pull Denise into an alliance with him.  If he didn't do the same thing with Angie, I'd be amazed, and there's nothing stopping him from pulling something similar with Roxy.  After all, if you're getting somebody to turn against their ally so quickly, then invalidating that alliance is a useful tactic.  Even if he didn't do it, Angie or Denise might have done.

At this point, I would not rule out an alliance of four on Matsing, with Russell on the outs.  I would bet good money that Malcolm has an alliance with both Angie and Denise and that Roxy is more likely to throw her lot in with them than with Russell.  If Matsing go back to Tribal Council, then Russell's in obvious danger.

However, if Matsing go back to Tribal Council, it will be because they've lost another challenge.  And it's going to be really tough for them to vote off one of only two big strong guys.  Russell ended up being a challenge liability this episode, but he's strong and fit, and if they stop letting him do the challenge strategising, he's still an asset overall.  None of the women look like they've got the muscle to take up a 'male' role in a challenge.

If that's the case, the vote will come down to Roxy and Angie.  It's impossible to judge on evidence so far who is weaker physically.  Obviously, Angie has made the better connections (that we've seen), but this is where Denise could potentially cause an upset.  If she's wary of Malcolm getting too close to Angie, having too much power over her vote, she might push for Angie to go home over Roxy.  Malcolm will lose a puppet and be more reliant on Denise; Denise will have lost nothing.

I'm making a big assumption there that Denise is equally close to either of the younger women, and it might be moot if she's not interested in shaking up the game so early--she does want to keep things simple after all.  So as it stands, I think Roxy is in the most trouble, though Angie and Russell need to tread carefully.

The last point to cover for Matsing is the immunity idol.  We haven't actually seen anybody looking for it, although Russell stumbled onto the clue and was spotted reading it by Zane.  Zane thought he might have the actual idol, but Malcolm and Denise only have his word for that.  His potential idol possession could have been the key factor in saving him (though, personally, I'm not counting out Zane's inability to run 150 yards).

Some of the things Malcolm and Denise were saying made me wonder if they were trying to flush the idol out.  Particularly Denise's little speech (and I paraphrase): "I volunteered to swim, so it was my fault for overestimating my ability... but on the other hand, maybe Russell should have told me not to do it."  If so, has Russell's failure to play an idol convinced them he doesn't actually have it?

Of course, he doesn't.  But he's the one with the clue, and this season, you're not going to find the idol without the clue.  The rest of Matsing had best not be hinging their game around finding that idol.

Finding idols bring us to Kalabaw, and their returning player.