Kalabaw: Let the Speculation Run Rampant!

After Wednesday's episode, Carter ruefully tweeted that he wished Kalabaw would lose a challenge so that they would get some airtime.  Damn straight.  Not only have we yet to hear from him in episode, but he hasn't even had an in-game confessional online yet.  Of all the players, Carter is the only one from which we have no commentary on the game's first week.

Carter shocks his tribemates with a brief
appearance from the shadows

What Carter needs to do is throw a challenge, then try and get both Jeff and Jonathan voted off at once, since they continue to be the entire focus of Kalabaw's edit.  Jonathan wants the idol and Jeff wants to get rid of Jonathan.  I'm tempted to just link you to last week's Kalabaw entry and leave it at that.  But that would mean passing up the chance to write a thousand words or so of speculation based on virtually no evidence, and that doesn't sound like me at all.

Biggest development in Kalabaw this week was Jonathan finding the idol, a little bit of ornamentation on top of the rice lid.  Will somebody notice it's gone?  You'd think so, although I'd also bet on some of the tribe never missing it, just because it's one of those decorations that you never really register.  Now, as I am told by Reality Rant's Bill Hammon, the idol cannot be taken off somebody's person or from their bag, but if it is hidden by the idol holder and somebody else comes across it and recognises it, it's finders keepers.

Since this season's idol has "This is the hidden immunity idol" written on it, Jonathan has elected to keep it in his bag.  It's possible therefore that somebody will check his bag and discover he has it, but then again, everybody suspects him anyway.

This has not deterred Jonathan from considering it a secret, and he has an absolutely wonderful online clip where he details how the idol can be used as a weapon of defence (playing it at Tribal Council) and a weapon of offence (using it to engender trust).  He's not going to tell anybody straightaway, but he's planning on using it to bring somebody under his wing and act as their protector.

The above makes me think of Natalie Tenerelli and Boston Rob.  Jonathan said before the season started that he knows "what a winner's game looks like," and although Cook Islands' Yul has to be a contender for his role model, this is the second time this season that Jonathan has reminded me of Redemption Island's Rob, the first being when he got everybody down to the beach and then made an excuse and doubled back to search for the idol.  Is Jonathan actually trying to replicate Boston Rob's game?

The potential problem here is that there cannot be a one-size-fits-all way to win the game.  You have to play to your personal strengths and weaknesses, and to the situation you're put into.  Giving Jonathan the benefit of the doubt, Boston Rob's game would not be a bad fit for him, and he's certainly smart enough to improvise his own moves.  I just hope that he's not going to blindly shoehorn Ometepe onto Kalabaw.

Does this mean he'll have more time to spend with his tribe?  Despite the idol distraction, I don't think he was separated from them that much anyway.  He knew it was at camp, so he could only look for it when nobody else was around, and the rain meant that everybody kept to the shelter.  His only chance was when they went to the cave.  The episode took care to show him returning to camp during the game of checkers, but I have to assume he had been absent for a confessional rather than anything voluntary, unless he was braving the rain to search for food?

Jonathan himself paints a rosy picture of his tribe position, saying he's got five people he can work with and that they're having fun.  Now, Jonathan's told us similar info before and been wrong--he's an eternal optimist about this game.  Clearly, he's oblivious to Jeff's designs, but let's assume he's got some basis for his confidence in the other four.  Does he have a target for his Natalie?  I can't quite fit any of his tribe into the sweet and nervous follower role--maybe Katie?  Or perhaps the unknown quantity of Carter?

While we'll hopefully see Jonathan firming up an alliance soon (my fingers are still crossed for Dawson!), Jeff Kent's already got his eye on a few tribemates, talking about himself, Carter and Dana in an online video.  He actually refers to them as being able to handle the challenges without Jonathan, but he goes on to say: "Our plan--my plan--is not to let him win [the game]."

Interesting phrasing, and my interpretation is that he might not have a formal alliance with those two (or perhaps has separate alliances with them but not formalised a threesome), yet he is counting on them in his overall gameplan.  We knew Dana was gravitating towards Jeff anyway, and I suppose we'll have to assume that Carter's OK with that too, but the conclusion here is that Jeff is seeking out the more physical players for allies.

On the wrong track for Kalabaw MVP

We learn in the same clip that his vendetta against returning players started prior to the game.  He claims he already knows the 'secrets' of the game that Jonathan is using to schmooze the tribe.  I'd say it's more a case of knowing the theory and experiencing the practice are two different things, so Jonathan can't help them learn it directly, although he can probably guide them.  Still, Jeff is right to prevent the others from putting Jonathan on a pedestal.  I don't think voting him off immediately is necessary, but you can't let him get to a place where the tribe/alliance is dependent on him.  That just gives him power in the game.

On the other hand, if Jeff came into this game refusing to play with returners, he's limiting himself.  All the more so this season, since Jonathan represents 20% of his potential allies, and the guy closest to his own age.

Also, if Jeff took on the puzzle portion of the game this time with the intent of proving Jonathan redundant, he didn't do a good job.  They still beat Matsing, but they lost their lead over Tandang, and Jeff seemed to be the weak link.  Jonathan had to remind him in the challenge to listen to Dana, and Dana herself observed in an webclip that Jeff kept trying to look over at Tandang's puzzle for a clue.  Eventually she managed to get his attention and tell him that she would take care of the peeking.

Dana didn't sound bothered by this behaviour, but I can guarantee that the others noticed.

While we're on the challenge, I was surprised by the distribution of women on Kalabaw.  It was a given that all the men would be running and that non-physical Dawson would not, but I would have pegged Dana as their female runner and Dawson as the caller.  Instead, Katie stepped up to prove her strength and Dana to prove her brains while Dawson apparently felt comfortable enough to sit out.

I'd say it paid off for all three women.  Katie was part of the reason that they pulled briefly into the lead, competing well with Jonathan against RC and Artis, while any blame for the puzzle seems destined for Jeff rather than Dana.  After being the weakest link in the previous challenge, both women redeemed themselves this time.  Meanwhile, Dawson and Jonathan went from second place to victory in the first challenge puzzle; Jeff and Jonathan went from first place to runners up.  Not only that, but she reported on twitter that she beat him at checkers too.  Advantage Dawson.

I don't know if Dawson's sitting out was voluntary, or if Jeff was keen to promote himself and (possible) ally Dana, so sidelined her deliberately.  Either way, it shouldn't hurt her, although it will force her to compete in next week's challenge (as I understand the rules), which might or might not be a problem.

Also on twitter, Dawson confirmed that she wasn't fooled by Jonathan's lie about looking for his glasses: "I spent the rest of the day with him until he had to go somewhere and I kept looking!" Obviously, that didn't pay off for her, but she's certainly smart enough about the game.

Her CBS online clip this week is entirely devoted to her social game, and how she's watching and listening to everybody, gathering what she can to use to her advantage down the road.  She also shows off her shoes and explains that she bought the loudest, brightest shoes she could (apparently they even glow in the dark) and wore pink so that people can always see her coming and know where she is.  They can feel comfortable with that.  She's not so much flying under the radar, as becoming such a clear presence on it that they forget to watch her.

I have no idea if this will work (though it makes sense to me), but what I really like about it is the originality.  This isn't a move cribbed out of Boston Rob's playbook or Russell's or Parvati's.  This is something that Dawson sat down and thought up by herself when preparing for the game.  It's an approach tailored to her personality and her gameplay.

Yet she is not a strategic player and apparently has no aspirations to a grand scheme of puppetmastery.  I am delighted by that.  While it's always fun to watch the puppetmasters, I like seeing variety in the players, and controlling the overall game is not as important as controlling your own.

Yeah, like she's going to give up her crown

That's the secret of Sandra's 'Anybody but me' approach.  Let the other players occupy themselves with scheming and plotting and instead focus on where you are in the game.  Sandra (almost) always knew which way the vote was going, and even influenced it on occasion, but mostly her goal was to keep herself in as safe a position as possible.  Knowing intuitively how to tackle the jury at the end was also vital.

Dawson is probably not another Sandra, but I still have high hopes for her.  She's quite possibly got a higher IQ than Sandra (though I'd give Sandra the edge in common sense), and I'm curious to see what her take on the game ends up being.

The final item of note for Kalabaw is that both Jeff and Dana referred to a first merge.  Clearly, they (and possibly all of Kalabaw) are presuming there will be a switch to two tribes before the merge, as has happened in every previous season that started with more than two tribes.

It's smart of them to anticipate that, but I would love for the producers to stick to their guns and keep the three tribes going until a merge at twelve, even if Matsing goes the way of Ulong (though it would be a shame to lose Denise).  Throwing in a double elimination is OK, but keep the tribes separate and see what happens come the merge.  Especially if they're counting on an early reshuffle.  Keep them in suspense!